Consultancy for (TDA)

Humedica

Terms of Reference (ToR) Consultancy for a Project-Shaping Resilience Analysis BMZ Transitional Development Assistance (TDA) Somalia Afmadow District (Jubaland State)

1. Background

Humedica e. V., in partnership with a local partner organization, is currently developing a multi-year resilience and climate adaptation project for submission under the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) framework for Transitional Development Assistance (TDA). The proposed intervention, titled: Strengthening Climate Resilience and Inclusive Community Structures for Vulnerable Households in Afmadow District, Somalia is expected to be implemented between January 2027 and December 2029 in Afmadow District, Jubaland State, Somalia. The overall project objective is: Vulnerable households and local governance structures in Afmadow District strengthen their resilience to climate-related shocks and stressors through diversified and climate-resilient livelihoods, sustainable water resource management, improved food and nutrition security, and inclusive, conflict-sensitive community governance mechanisms. The intervention is expected to contribute to strengthening absorptive, adaptive and transformative resilience capacities at household, community and institutional levels among populations exposed to recurrent climate shocks, environmental degradation, displacement dynamics, conflict-related risks and protracted humanitarian stressors. In line with BMZ requirements for Structural Transitional Aid, the project design must be informed by a project-shaping resilience analysis. The assignment is expected to apply a systems-oriented resilience lens that analyses the interlinkages between climate risks, conflict dynamics, governance challenges, social exclusion and livelihood vulnerabilities in order to identify integrated and sustainable resilience pathways. The resilience analysis is expected to:

• identify the key shocks, stressors and vulnerabilities affecting target populations and institutions,
• assess resilience capacities and systemic gaps,
• analyse climate, governance and conflict-related risks,
• identify resilience pathways and opportunities for systems strengthening,
• and directly inform the intervention logic, resilience pathways, sequencing, Theory of Change, targeting strategy, implementation approach, assumptions and results framework of the proposed project.

2. Purpose of the Assignment

The purpose of this consultancy is to support humedica e. V. and its local implementing partner in conducting a high-quality, BMZ-compliant, project-shaping resilience analysis for the proposed intervention in Afmadow District. The assignment is expected to critically assess and refine the existing project concept and generate practical recommendations for strengthening the project s resilience logic, sector integration, conflict sensitivity and sustainability. The resilience analysis is expected to serve as the analytical foundation for the project s Theory of Change, outcome structure, targeting approach and results framework. The analysis should contribute to the development of a robust and evidence-based project design that aligns with the context (and inter-contexts) of the project area, and that in particular considers the following:

• BMZ Transitional Development Assistance priorities,
• resilience and HDP Nexus approaches,
• climate adaptation and disaster risk reduction frameworks,
• conflict-sensitive and inclusive programming principles,
• and locally driven systems strengthening approaches.

The resilience analysis should further support an integrated HDP Nexus approach by identifying opportunities to strengthen linkages between humanitarian response, longer-term development approaches and conflict-sensitive peace-oriented programming.

3. Objectives of the Resilience Analysis

1. Analyse the humanitarian, climate, socio-economic and governance context in Afmadow District.
2. Identify major shocks, stressors and drivers of vulnerability affecting target populations.
3. Assess absorptive, adaptive and transformative resilience capacities at household, community and institutional levels and the linkages within and between these levels.
4. Analyse structural barriers affecting vulnerable and marginalized groups, including women, youth, IDPs and minority groups.
5. Assess local governance systems, social cohesion dynamics and conflict-related risks.
6. Identify resilience gaps relevant to the proposed intervention sectors.
7. Assess the extent to which the current project concept adequately addresses identified resilience challenges.
8. Develop recommendations to strengthen the intervention logic, resilience pathways and results framework.
9. Contribute to the refinement of the project Theory of Change and outcome structure.

4. Scope of Work

4.1 Inception Phase

• Review and refine the assignment methodology.
• Develop an inception note including workplan, methodology, analytical framework and stakeholder engagement approach.
• Conduct a kick-off meeting with humedica e. V. and local implementing partner.

4.2 Desk Review

Review relevant literature, assessments, project documents and secondary data sources relevant to resilience, climate risks, governance, conflict dynamics and humanitarian vulnerabilities in Somalia and Jubaland State.

4.3 Context and Systems Analysis

Conduct a context analysis covering:

• climate and environmental risks,
• drought and flood dynamics,
• livelihoods and socio-economic systems,
• water access and resource governance,
• food and nutrition security,
• displacement dynamics,
• local governance systems,
• social cohesion and community structures,
• gender and social inclusion,
• conflict and political economy dynamics,
• and access to basic services.

The analysis should identify interlinkages between humanitarian vulnerabilities, climate risks, governance challenges, conflict dynamics and systems constraints.

4.4 Shock, Stressor and Vulnerability Analysis

Identify and prioritize:

• acute shocks,
• chronic stressors,
• climate-related risks,
• conflict-related risks,
• economic and market-related vulnerabilities,
• governance-related vulnerabilities,
• and risks related to displacement and exclusion.