Evaluation of Development Account Project Sustainable Debt

Client of United Nation careers

1. Background and Objective In recent years, the Arab region experienced increasing shares of debt and debt service relative to output that limits fiscal space for development expenditure and the SDG financing. It is not just the rising debt but also the changing composition of debt, such as rising share of external debt from private creditors, that is becoming a growing concern for debt sustainability, particularly for highly indebted middle-income countries (MICs) and the least developed countries (LDCs). Several reasons are behind the debt accumulation and its changing composition in the MICs and LDCs, including the negative impacts of the global economic slowdown and persistent trade deficits, adverse impacts of crises in several parts of the region and loss of revenues, and commodity price fluctuations that widened fiscal shortfalls in oil and commodity export dependent countries of the region. The adverse economic consequence of the COVID-19 is another cross-border challenge that plummeted public revenues and liquidity at hands of governments to support human security of their people and stability of economies, thus leading to increased borrowing from external finance. In this background, the global pandemic has accentuated the fiscal risks by increasing the fiscal shortfalls and increasing debt burdens for most countries in the Arab region. Addressing public debt sustainability, including solvency challenges, is a prime driver of macroeconomic stability and growth. While debt financing is not the sole engine of financing in the context of the Addis Ababa Agenda (AAAA) on financing for development, and it should not be the sole engine of financing, it remains as one of the key sources of fiscal space and financing the SDGs. Unfortunately, the decisions leading to debt finance are often not well strategized regarding the choice of debt instruments, different ways of debt financing and terms and conditions that can affect contingency obligations and debt sustainability in the future. The LDCs and MICs being often at the receiving end of negotiations, and without having adequate tools to inform their decisions, continue to face greater risks of potentially unsustainable debt service in parallel with their financing needs for meeting the SDGs. Against this background, ESCWA embarked on a project titled Sustainable Debt Financing Strategies to Enhance Fiscal Space, Provide Financing for the SDGs and Address the Repercussions of COVID-19 in the Arab Region to support and provide technical assistance to member States in the region in improving their capacity toward more effective debt management practices including improving debt transparency and reporting, better understanding mechanisms of debt relief and reduction, debt instruments, their risks and linkages to meeting contingencies and debt sustainability in the medium and long term. The main expected results of the project are the improved capacity of policymakers to better understand debt statistics, debt instruments and their risks, which can inform their decisions to establish medium to long term strategy on debt finance toward improving fiscal space and financing for the SDGs. The result will be demonstrated by evidence from a sample of pilot countries efforts on debt management strategies with use of the tools developed by the project. 2. Duties and Responsibilities Purpose of the Evaluation Evaluations at ESCWA strive to demonstrate the difference made by its work and its impact on member States and their citizens. This evaluation will aim to determine how the work undertaken in the Debt Financing Strategies project contributed to achieving its intended results, the pathway to these results, and the elements that contributed most significantly to their achievement. It will also consider any unintended results positive or negative that emerged during implementation. The evaluation will serve three main purposes: Evidence-based decision-making: Provide a foundation for strategic planning and risk management. Accountability: Demonstrate performance and results to ESCWA s Executive and member States, in line with the Commission s mandate. Organizational learning: Identify lessons learned and actionable recommendations to strengthen future ESCWA projects in debt management, fiscal policy, and SDG financing. The evaluation will be conducted in accordance with ESCWA s Evaluation Policy (2025), the UNEG Norms and Standards for Evaluation, and the Development Account Evaluation Guidelines. It will integrate best practices for promoting gender equality, human rights, disability inclusion, and environmental sustainability. The primary audiences are ESCWA, UNCTAD, UN Country Teams in target countries, and relevant government institutions in ESCWA member States. The evaluation will be facilitated and coordinated by ESCWA s Strategic Planning, Accountability, Results and Knowledge (SPARK) Section. Scope of the Evaluation The evaluation will be forward-looking and will objectively and systematically assess the performance of the project in terms of its relevance, coherence, effectiveness, efficiency, impact, and sustainability. Furthermore, the evaluation will assess the extent to which gender, human rights, disability inclusion, environmental concerns, and other cross-cutting issues were incorporated or mainstreamed into the project. The evaluation will cover the period from January 2022 to December 2025. Evaluation Criteria The following key evaluation questions per criteria will guide the evaluation. The evaluator is expected to refine evaluation questions where necessary and to include the refinement in the Inception Report. Relevance How did the project team determine the strategic needs and priorities of member States in its project design? How were the intended results of the project aligned with the strategic needs and priorities of member States, the sustainable development goals, and national and regional development agendas? How were the identified results aligned with other stakeholders strategic needs and priorities? How was the log frame translated to ensure that the activities carried out were relevant and contributed to achievement of the intended result(s)