Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment (CRVA) Consultant Global Green Growth Institute

Currently, GGGI is supporting UAE for the development of its National Adaptation Plan (NAP), which will serve as a broad-ranging and strategic document outlining adaptation priorities and projects, including both short- and long-term measures, aligned with the country s sustainable development needs as well as its national development planning frameworks and aspirations.

As a key milestone in the NAP process, GGGI has delivered a National Adaptation Plan (NAP) Roadmap for the United Arab Emirates, which was successfully launched by the Ministry of Climate Change and Environment during the COP28 under the UNFCCC. The roadmap sets out the vision, rationale, and delivery approach for the UAE s NAP Development.

In 2026 GGGI will accelerate and complete the delivery of the NAP. This will be centered around a sector-led CRVA that builds on the 2019 vulnerability assessments and will focus on the agreed NAP priority sectors (to be confirmed during the inception phase).

Objectives of the assignment

Under the guidance of the Government of the UAE, the overall objective of this consultancy is to support the delivery of a Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment (CRVA) that will serve as an analytical foundation for the NAP by identifying climate risks, assessing vulnerabilities, and informing evidence-based prioritization of adaptation actions across priority sectors and geographies. Specific objectives of this consultancy include:

• Methodology Implementation Support: Support the Government of the UAE and GGGI to operationalize and apply an agreed high-level CRVA methodology for the NAP, ensuring it is feasible and fit-for-purpose for UAE decision-making.
• Climate Data and Model Application: Apply available UAE datasets and relevant regional climate models (RCMs) to assess current and projected climate hazards, exposure and vulnerability across agreed priority sectors.
• High-Level Sector Profiling: Produce high-level climate risk and vulnerability profiles for the NAP priority sectors, using a consistent data approach and common terminology aligned with UAE institutions.
• Capacity and Usability: Document assumptions, limitations, and practical guidance so that UAE stakeholders can replicate and update the assessment over time using available national/regional data sources.
• Recommendations for NAP Prioritization: Provide evidence-based recommendations and inputs to support prioritization of adaptation actions under the NAP process, based on the outputs of the high-level CRVA.

Deliverables and Payment schedule

The assignment will be implemented through a structured, stepwise approach, with deliverables defined for each step. The Consultant may recommend amendments to this scope in their proposal to ensure the most effective delivery of the assignment; however, any changes must remain fully aligned with the original scope and obligations that GGGI has committed to under its agreement with the Government of UAE.

The final deliverable of this consultancy is a CRVA report (50+ pages including annexes) for UAE validated by GGGI and Government of UAE, including a methodological note and guidance for Emirate-level extrapolations, and a prioritization methodology.

Step 1: Methodological Development and Data Collection

• Activities (proposed for guidance, the consultant will be asked to present a brief methodological and inception note for validation by GGGI Staff)
• Conduct a rapid data readiness and gap assessment of regional and UAE-available datasets (hazards, exposure, vulnerability, socio-economic and sector data), including metadata, quality, spatial/temporal coverage, and access constraints.
• Identify and confirm the regional climate model outputs and scenarios to be used (as available to UAE institutions), and define how they will be applied (downscaling assumptions, time horizons, and key climate indices).
• Define the assessment scope (priority sectors and geographies) and an implementation workplan aligned with the NAP timeline, including validation points and stakeholder touchpoints.
• Taking into consideration the approach developed by GGGI, prepare and submit a concise inception note documenting the datasets/models to be used, processing steps, and draft outline of outputs.
• Deliver a half-day workshop presenting the recommended methodology for the CRVA, and presenting the approach for the prioritization.

Deliverable 1: Inception note, including (i) confirmed high-level CRVA approach and minimum analytical requirements, (ii) data readiness and gap assessment of UAE-available datasets, (iii) confirmation of regional climate model outputs/scenarios to be used, and (iv) an implementation workplan, timeline, validation plan and draft structure of the CRVA outputs [in agreement with GGGI] v) Design and host a workshop in the UAE together with UAE staff to validate the data approach.

Step 2: Sector data collection and analysis (Consultant); index-based CRVA development (GGGI)

Activities:

• Compile, clean, and harmonize UAE-available datasets required to apply the agreed high-level CRVA methodology (hazards, exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity, socio-economic and sector data), documenting metadata, processing steps, and key assumptions.
• Coordinate with relevant UAE stakeholders and data custodians (with support from GGGI) to request/confirm datasets, permissions, and any data-sharing constraints.
• Apply the selected regional climate model outputs and scenarios to generate hazard characterizations (as relevant and feasible), and prepare sector-relevant hazard indicators aligned with the agreed time horizons and indices.
• Prepare and deliver to GGGI a structured, quality-checked data package for each priority sector (datasets, code/scripts where applicable, processing logs, and summary tables) to enable GGGI staff to run and validate the index-based CRVA.
• Develop draft high-level climate risk and vulnerability profiles for each priority sector using the agreed templates, and identify key cross-sectoral linkages, cascading risks, and compounding vulnerabilities for integration into the CRVA report.

Deliverable 2: Draft high-level CRVA sector profiles for the agreed NAP priority sectors, including a brief cross-sectoral analysis of interlinkages and cascading/compounding risks, and a documented summary of datasets and regional climate model outputs used.